6:00 PM, June 28th, 2022
After a slow start to hurricane season, activity has finally ramped up. As of now, there are two areas of interest: Invest 95L and PTC 2. Here's what you should know and what to look out for.
PTC 2:
Currently East of the Lesser Antilles, PTC 2 is all but certain to develop into a tropical storm within the coming days. The NHC released their latest forecast shown above, which has PTC 2 becoming Hurricane Bonnie before weakening over Central America. The model consensus caps Bonnie off as a relatively weak hurricane and key factors are likely to deter any potential rapid intensification. In regards to track, the ECMWF and GFS have been focusing in on a due west track that avoids the Gulf of Mexico, thus decreasing chances of further intensification. However, there may be slight changes, as a more organized system will resist present steering forces and result in a more northerly track. If you're located in any part of Central America, prepare for a low-end hurricane making landfall sometime this weekend.
95L:
Invest 95L is currently a disorganized system of low pressure off the coast of Texas. The NHC recently increased its 48 hour chances of development to 40%, which is surprising considering the lack of progress 95L has made in mostly favorable conditions. Due to its weak convection and surrounding sheer, it is probable that this system will serve as a source of drought relief rather than a threat to Southeast Texas this week, despite exceptionally high SSTs.